What does the air picture say about the explosion in parliament?

Journalist Fatih Yılmaz (@FatihYilmaz_yf), who accessed the air picture over Ankara from the night of July 15, resurfaced questions regarding the explosion in the Turkish Parliament. A FOX reporter, who was broadcasting live at the time of the explosion, stated that while reporting on the incident, he did not hear the sound of an aircraft and suggested that the explosion might have been caused by a tank or helicopter fire. 

So, what does the air picture tell us at the moment of the explosion? Was there an aircraft over the Parliament building at the time of the explosion that matched the firing parameters? 

First of all, it is important to note this: All information from takeoff to landing is recorded by the devices on the aircraft, and these records are used as primary evidence in analyses and evaluations. No VTR/DVR recording showing the moment of firing, which could serve as evidence for the claim that "the parliament was bombed by planes" on the night of July 15, has been presented. This alone is significant enough to demonstrate the baselessness of the claim and is a clear indication that evidence not supporting the allegations has been systematically obscured. 

Even if an aircraft matching the firing parameters is detected on the air picture showing radar records, which is one of the records kept outside the aircraft, this detection alone does not indicate that a shot was fired from an aircraft, it tells us which aircraft's records should be examined in detail. However, if there are no signs in the air picture consistent with the firing pattern at the moment of the explosion, this detection alone is sufficient to show that there is no ammunition fired from the aircraft onto the assembly. 

The most comprehensive analysis to determine the source of the explosion at the parliament on July 15th was conducted by Air Force Pilot Staff Lieutenant Colonel Aykut Coşkun (@AykutCoskunYb) during a program hosted by Mr. Ahmet Nesin (@ahmetnesin1). He explained, beyond any doubt, that the damage caused by the explosion in the parliament could not have resulted from aircraft munitions. The full program can be watched here. 

It was claimed in the indictments that the first of the two explosions at the parliament on July 16, 2016, at 02:35, was caused by a single GBU-10 laser-guided bomb dropped by aircraft number 105. Since the records of Flight 105 reveal that the plane took off at 02:33, the possibility of this plane firing at the parliament at 02:35 is already eliminated. Additionally, since there is no second precise time information about this explosion, no evaluation was made based on the air picture. 

It was claimed that the second explosion in the parliament occurred at 03:24 due to two MK82 (unguided) general-purpose bombs. Unlike the indictment, the time of the second explosion is seen as 03:22:15 in the security camera footage. Since 03:22:15 was identified as the most precise and accessible time indicating the moment of the explosion, this time has been used as the reference for the analysis of the air picture. It is worth mentioning from the beginning that we need to take seconds into account when evaluating the shots fired from the aircraft. For this reason, analyzing the 20-second section before the explosion will provide us with a proper evaluation. 

In order for an F-16 aircraft to drop an unguided munition on its target, the aircraft must aim at the target (target tracking) for a minimum of 5 seconds and with a bomb flight time of 10 seconds depending on altitude, it must be flying toward the target for the last 15 seconds before the explosion. 

The security camera footage showing the explosion time: 

While analysing the air picture, the 20-second period before the explosion was analysed in 5-second intervals in order to evaluate the movements of the aircraft over Ankara. 

Since the "data recording file" could not be accessed in the obtained air picture image, in order to determine the location of the Parliament building on the screen, the location of the Parliament on the real aerial map was placed on the air picture by taking the information of Akıncı, Esenboğa, Güvercinlik and Etimesgut airports, whose location information was available on the same screen, as reference, and it was determined that the yellow dot marked as Ankara on the air picture corresponds to the actual location of the Parliament, with a difference of about the size of one yellow dot. 

In air pictures taken in 5-second intervals: 

Since the time in the air picture is seen as "Z" standard time, 3 hours must be added for Turkey time. 

The yellow Ankara marker corresponds to the actual location of the Parliament with a difference of one point. 

The direction of the lines emerging from the circular tracks indicates the flight direction. 

“Run Time” shows the actual time of the tracks. 

00:21:55 Z (Turkey Standard Time 03:21:55) 

00:22:00 Z (Turkey Standard Time 03:22:00) 

00:22:05 Z (Turkey Standard Time 03:22:05) 

00:22:10 Z (Turkey Standard Time 03:22:10) 

00:22:15 Z (Turkey Standard Time 03:22:15) 

Position of aircraft at the time of the explosion in Parliament 

As clearly seen in the air pictures, there is no trace of movement towards the parliament's location in the interval between the explosion and 20 seconds prior. Therefore, the claim that an explosion occurred in the parliament due to a munition dropped from a plane that was not flying toward the parliament does not align with the laws of physics or aerodynamics. If a munition had been dropped from an airplane, as claimed, the bomb would have been within 1 mile of the plane that dropped the bomb at the time of the explosion. It is observed that all the traces in the air picture are located beyond 5 miles from the parliament building at the moment of the explosion. Since night conventional ammunition firing was carried out in a diving manner to drop bombs from altitudes of 3000-5000 feet in order to ensure a more precise hit, the sound of the aircraft would be expected to be heard both before and after the explosion. The reporter's statement on FOX TV's live broadcast that no aircraft noise was heard before or after the explosion also invalidates the claims. 

Since the records on the airplane and radar records do not support the claims regarding the explosion in the parliament, the place to look is the one-week security camera footage showing the area where the explosion occurred. In this way, the perpetrators can be easily identified by revealing whether there is a pre-planted explosive device in the area. Perhaps starting with the interrogation of Bekir Bozdağ, who took the podium before the explosion, calmly checked the clock on the table a few seconds before the explosion and remained calm at the time of the explosion, will help find the attacker more quickly. 

Air Force Colonel (Ret) Yüksel Akkale 

Source 

(*) Previously published on the website 15temmuzinfo.wordpress, the link to the news is 

https://15temmuzinfo.wordpress.com/2021/12/09/meclisteki-patlama-icin-havaresmi-ne-soyluyor